ID-Sen, ID-01: Risch Ahead by 12, Minnick Up by 7

Harstad Strategic Services (10/19-22, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 33

Jim Risch (R): 45

Rex Rammell (I): 5

Pro-Life (I): 2

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don’t agree with McJoan’s assessment that the DSCC should lay down some last-minute coin to push LaRocco over the edge here — a few 30-second ads won’t be enough to make up a 12-point gap with only a few days left on the clock. And while Risch isn’t wildly popular in Idaho (his favorable rating is 41-28), LaRocco is even less loved — his favorable rating clocks in at a 34-37. Unfair? Maybe, but this is Idaho, and these numbers aren’t going to get the job done. The DSCC is correct to focus on tighter races.

But the real nugget from this poll is its 1st CD numbers:

Walt Minnick (D): 48

Bill Sali (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.9%)

Keep in mind that the sample size is quite small here, but it’s the second poll in recent days showing Sali trailing Minnick (SUSA had Minnick up by six). Minnick might just pull this one off.

11 thoughts on “ID-Sen, ID-01: Risch Ahead by 12, Minnick Up by 7”

  1. …but Idaho is REALLY REALLY cheap.  It is the type of state (unlike say Texas) you can take a long shot gamble on and not lose much if things don’t go your way.

  2. read section 10 of the poll closely

    Minnick  48%

    SALLY  41%

    Everywhere Sali’s name appears in section 10 it is spelt Sally.  LOL

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